What A Long Strange Trip It's Going To Be
Posted Sunday, March 22, 2020 07:59 PM

A conversation with David D. Ho, Director and Chief Executive
Officer, Aaron Diamond AIDS Research Center; Irene Diamond
Professor, The Rockefeller University, on 18 March:
    Q. Walk us through the spread of the virus in the United
    States. What does the country look like right now?
    A. Let me just give you a picture of what I see here in New
    York. About two weeks ago, we had our initial case, and now
    in New York City newly diagnosed confirmed cases are
    tripling every two days. In our New York Presbyterian
    Hospital, approximately 25 percent of the swab samples that
    are submitted for testing are positive. In the suburban
    communities outside of New York, approximately 10 percent
    of the swabs submitted are positive. So, the virus is
    everywhere. And in New York, we know that we are in the
    exponential growth phase of the epidemic.
    Looking back at what has transpired throughout the world,
    we saw the first wave hit China; the second wave hit South
    Korea, Italy, and Iran; and then, trailed by only about a
    week or so, France, Germany, Spain, and the U.S. We all
    know that China went through a period of great devastation.
    It has over 80,000 cases. Italy is rapidly catching up,
    with over 31,000 cases. We suspect that in the U.S. this
    will rapidly sweep from the coastal regions and it will hit
    middle America. It is already there, but we will see
    exponential growth very, very soon. Then of course we are
    all worried about what would happen when this epidemic
    strikes places like Africa and India where the health care
    system is less developed.